Monday, March 21, 2011

The Great Debate: Who impressed the most in the Tournament's opening weekend?


Bracket torn to pieces? Already sick of the Madness and tired of hearing the words "Cinderella," "upset," and "chalk" being thrown with regularity in conversation?

Well, too freaking bad! We only get one NCAA Tournament a year and we -- Matt Donato and Michael Kelly -- are going to live it up while we can. Here's our take on the most impressive team from each region in the men's NCAA Tournament. As always, feel free to chime in using the comments section.

EAST REGION

KELLY: I don't think we'll have too much of a difference in opinion over this one -- Ohio State was the most impressive team in this region by quite a bit.

First, Ohio State easily dispatched of UT-San Antonio by 29 points. While being the latest No. 1 to knock off a 16-seed is not exactly something to write (email?) home about, the Buckeyes did maintain their focus and hold the Roadrunners to 46 points. As a big UNC fan who watched his team allow (freaking) Long Island score 87 points, I know how easy it is for an overwhelming favorite to allow itself to simply play along with the underdog. Ohio State deserves credit for not doing so.

Then, George Mason. Wow. The Patriots were being thought of as a club with a legitimate shot to upset the Buckeyes and, instead, Ohio State made George Mason look more like a wide-eyed mid-major than a program only a few years removed from a Final Four run.

While outscoring the Patriots 52-26 in the first half was obviously the eye-popping team statistic, I am more impressed by Ohio State's 46-40 second-half advantage. Even up 26, the Buckeyes maintained their focus. Right now, they're the epitome of a team on a mission.

DONATO: I agree. I was absolutely certain that George Mason was going to give the Sullinger Gang a fight to the buzzer. The team couldn't find a rebound this year outside of Sullinger, and had a very shallow bench. Somehow this week, we underrated the No. 1 overall seed, and they proved to us just how good they really are.

They are the No. 1 seed though, and should be expected to dominate the opening rounds. Marquette, however, has acted like most people expected every other Big East team to play in the tournament, yet did so as an 11-seed.

They handled Xavier easily (won by 11) in the opener, and dispatched my "hindsight is 20-20" East favorite Syracuse on Sunday night. They are the forgotten Big East team, dismissed as the 11th member who only just got in. Yet their conference makes their run seem less Cinderella-esque.

The Saratogian's Alex Ventre was in the office Sunday night rooting for Marquette because he'd prefer UNC play them over the Orange, but the Golden Eagles are playing with some dangerous nobody-believed-in-us swagger.

Your -- Kelly is a UNC fan -- Tar Heels will win the battle of the boards, but if Marquette can hit 82% of their FTs like they did Sunday and hold UNC to under 70 points like they did to Xavier and 'Cuse, the Eagles have played well enough to envision them being the fifth 11-seed ever to make it to the Elite Eight.

WEST REGION

DONATO: I am really pleased with how my Huskies have performed out west, putting down Bucknell with ease and outplaying familiar foe Cincinnati, but the team that has really caught my attention in these first two rounds has been Arizona.

While they have not blown out either of their opponents, winning by a combined margin of three points, they have become the collegiate Anti-Heat with their close wins against tough opponents.

Memphis was 28th in RPI when the tournament started and was as high as No. 13 overall in the AP poll this season, and Texas spent three weeks as the No. 3 overall, finished No. 8, yet still drew a 4-seed. Both are a misleading draw, neither in favor of Arizona, yet the Wildcats played both games down to the last second and have survived into the Sweet 16.

They have shown great tenacity and grit. I only hope they still have something in the tank for Duke.

Despite shooting 4-of-14 from the field against Texas, Derrick Williams has been really impressive these last two games (Did you know he hit 61% 36-of-59 of his 3-pointers this season? How does he not shoot them more?) with his game-saving block against Memphis and amazing game-winning three-point play on Sunday.

When Williams was shooting poorly, Solomon Hill was filling in the gaps. Both had good peripheral numbers in the Texas game as well. I hope Duke will not take them as lightly as I did heading into the tournament.

KELLY: Before I explain my unconventional pick for this region's most impressive team, yes, Arizona was fantastic and Williams is a stud. To answer your questions about his lack of 3-point attempts -- that's my favorite thing about him. Williams is the rare player in this generation who seems to like to bang down low even though he has a nice perimeter game.

If I had the No. 1 pick in this upcoming draft and did not have a positional need to dictate my choice, I would take Williams in a heartbeat.

ANYWAY, my choice for the West's most impressive team is the now-eliminated Michigan Wolverines. A 30-point blowout of Tennessee and an almost upset of No. 1 Duke was enough for me; coach John Beilein has the once-vaunted Big Ten program back in the thick of things. Michigan has gotten to the tournament now in two of the last three years (after not being in the tournament since 1998) and has won a game in each visit.

SOUTHWEST REGION

KELLY: We certainly have a bevy of choices to pick from here. I'll take the VCU Rams, a program now headed to the Sweet 16 for the first time in the school's history. After spending the days leading up the tournament hearing how they did not even belong in the play-in game, the Rams went out and beat USC of the Pac-10, Georgetown of the Big East and Purdue of the Big Ten.

Correction: Not only won, but defeated each major-conference representative by at least 13 points. VCU's average winning margin so far in the tournament has been 16.3 points per game. Even better for Cinderella-watchers, VCU next has a winnable game against the ACC's Florida State, which likely would be followed by a date with Kansas out of the Big 12. Could you imagine if VCU ran through five of the six major conferences on its way to a Final Four berth?

DONATO: I am loving the Rams in the tournament this year. The whole Southwest has been a lot of fun, with 10 through 13 making it to the technical third round and 10 through 12 still playing in the Sweet 16, there are plenty of teams to choose from.

I'm going to have to throw my support behind Florida State, because Sunday night's win over Notre Dame was never in doubt. The Seminoles grabbed about a 10 point lead midway through the first half, and the game stayed at that level throughout.

Florida State has been great this year at limiting opponents' FG% and did just that to the Irish. Notre Dame shot 31 percent from the field, and their dangerous 3-point shooters hit only seven of their 30 shots (23%) from behind the arch.

Bernard James has been a great low post threat, hitting 11-of-16 shots in the tournament and collecting 16 rebounds. VCU and Florida State meet on March 25, and the way the Southwest is going, the winner may face Richmond. (Man, how did Richmond not get any love in this column?)

SOUTHEAST REGION

DONATO: I could make a case for each of these teams, and would do so if that did not mean that I would walk all over your end of the contributions for this region. The team that has stood out to me the most has been Wisconsin.

The Badgers did not allow Belmont to get going after Belmont became a chic upset pick, and stopped Kansas State when the majority of people felt that Jacob Pullen and the Wildcats were the favorite. Wisconsin was also coming off a train wreck loss to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament by a score of 36-33.

As much as I liked Wisconsin during the regular season (one of two teams to beat Ohio State), I gave them high probability to lose either of their first two games, and even though their seeding suggests that they belong in the Sweet 16, their play in getting there has been a pleasant surprise.

KELLY: I'm just going to do it. Jimmer and the Fredettes were this region's most impressive team and here's why: No team had more to prove -- "You can't win without Davies!" -- and a bigger spotlight -- both games on CBS, prime-time -- and the BYU Cougars delivered.

Sure, they were touch-and-go for a bit in the Wofford-game, but the Cougars responded with a 22-point drubbing of Gonzaga.

More importantly, the local kid did himself right. Averages of 33 points and 6.5 assists per game, showing once and for all he's just not a kid who can light it up against the whatstheirnames in the Mountain West.

So, what's your take? Agree, disagree? Let us know in the comments!

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Saturday, March 19, 2011

Sunday's Round of 32 Preview

We wrap up the early rounds of the men's NCAA tournament on Sunday and punch the tickets of eight more teams to the Sweet 16. Here's a glance at each of the games on the second day of the Round of 32.*

East Region: No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 7 Washington, 12:15 p.m., CBS

The Tar Heels were content to just play along with Long Island in North Carolina's 102-87 win on Friday night. While Long Island is not an offensive slouch -- the Blackbirds averaged 82.6 points per game this season, fourth best in the nation -- the Tar Heels will need to find some semblance of defense in order to get past a very talented Washington club.

The Huskies were ranked early on this season before trailing off in late January. Isaiah Thomas (16.9 points, six assists per game) is one of the nation's most explosive players and senior Matthew Bryan-Amaning (15.3 points, eight rebounds per game) provides the muscle down low for Washington.

The most interesting matchup in this one will be Bryan-Amaning against UNC's Jon Henson down low. Amaning (240 pounds) is a wide body and Henson's body has a stick-figure look to it. Still, the North Carolina sophomore is a top defensive player and is averaging 10.3 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game.

West Region: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 8 Michigan, 2:45 p.m., CBS

The West is the bracket of fate, isn't it? First we get Duke-Michigan on the immediate heels of last weekend's Fab Five documentary which featured these two teams' matchup in the 1991 national championship. Then, possibly down the road, we could get either one of these teams going against ex-Michigan coach Steve Fisher's San Diego State club in the Elite Eight.

Just pointing out that if you believe the selection committee does not consider storyline when making up the bracket, you are painfully naive.

(That, or the selection committee is the luckiest group of people in the world. Your pick.)

Anyway, this game features two of the teams with more impressive tournament debuts. Duke walked past Hampton State, but was able to get Kyrie Irving into the action for a bit, and Michigan trounced a seemingly distracted Tennessee team by 30 points.

Should be an interesting contrast of styles -- Michigan can break out its 1-3-1 zone against Duke, something that I do not think the Blue Devils have faced this season. Should make for an interesting subplot to see how Duke's 3-point shooters react to those wing-to-corner 3-pointers being covered.

East Region: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 George Mason, 5:15 p.m., CBS

I don't think anyone will be too surprised if George Mason pulls off this upset. Coach Jim Larranaga's club cannot sneak up on anyone like it did several years ago in mounting a Final Four run, but this year's Patriots are good enough that they do not need to take anyone by surprise.

Ohio State has more pure talent and will have the best player (Jared Sullinger, the potential No. 1 pick in this year's NBA draft), but George Mason's biggest strength comes against Ohio State's greatest weakness: Guard play. Luke Hancock and Cam Long average a combined 25.9 points per game and take excellent care of the ball, only coughing it up 4.1 times per game between them.

West Region: No. 4 Texas vs. No. 5 Arizona, 6:10 p.m., TNT

This one might be our best game in the entire tournament in terms of potential pro prospects.

Arizona's Derrick Williams is a fantastic prospect and a likely top-5 pick in this upcoming draft. The 6-foot-8 power forward averaged 19.2 points per game this season ... on 61-percent shooting from the floor. He also has a nice touch, connecting on 36-of-59 3-pointers this season (61 percent). Williams went for 22 points and 10 rebounds in his team's opening victory over Memphis.

Texas has a couple pro prospects, its best being Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson. Hamilton, a 6-foot-7 sophomore, averaged 18.7 points per game this season, while Thompson is more of a stat-sheet stuffer. The freshman averaged 13.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, and compiled 17 points, 10 rebounds and seven blocks in his team's second-round victory against Oakland.

Southwest Region: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 11 VCU, 7:10 p.m., TBS

VCU has already won two games in this tournament and might be able to pull off the upset here, too. Purdue's losing of Kelsey Barlow didn't hurt the Boilermakers in their blowout of St. Peters, but VCU may be the tournament's hottest team right now. The Rams have won four of their last five games, with wins over George Mason, USC and Georgetown -- that's a pretty impressive list.

East Region: No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 11 Marquette, 7:45 p.m., truTV

Just another Big East battle.

Syracuse has a chance to avenge one of its regular-season losses in this one. The Orange lost to Marquette at the tail-end of Syracuse's four-game losing streak at the end of January that temporarily derailed the team after its fantastic start.

Back when they met in January, Syracuse's vaunted zone defense was no match for Jae Crowder, who sliced and diced his way to 25 points. The Golden Eagles also connected on 6-of-13 3-pointers and managed to get to the line for 33 free-throw attempts.

Jim Boeheim's club will need to tighten up its defense in order to reverse January's game-result. A better game from guard Brandon Triche

Southwest Region: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 9 Illinois, 8:40 p.m., TNT

This seems like a game we should just be able to (rock) chalk up a win for the Jayhawks, but Illinois was so impressive in its victory against UNLV. Up 22 points at the half, Illinois coasted a bit in the second half, but still managed an 11-point win.

In order to pull off the upset, Illinois needs to play a full game and get better ball protection from point guard Demetri McCamey (seven assists, six turnovers).

Southwest Region: No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Florida State, 9:40 p.m., TBS

Let's not waste our time -- Notre Dame is probably playing the best basketball in the NCAA, winning 13 of their last 15 games. Mike Brey and his club are moving on to the Sweet 16.  

*Consider my mailing in of that final game to be retribution for the NCAA allowing this batch of games to be dubbed the "Round of 32." Seriously, NCAA? Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four ... and Round of 32?

--Michael Kelly

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Friday, March 18, 2011

Saturday's Round of 32 Preview

Eight more games on the slate for Saturday's NCAA men's basketball tournament as the Madness moves into Day 3. Here's a quick look at each of Saturday's games. 

East Region: No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 5 West Virginia, 12:15 p.m., CBS

This is a rematch of one of last year's Elite Eight contests, though neither squad has too many, if any, impact players back from last year. Much like last year, Kentucky would seem to have an advantage in pure talent and athleticism, so it will be interesting to see if Bob Huggins can outwork John Calipari once again.

Should be fun to see how Kentucky's much-ballyhooed freshman point guard, Brandon Knight, responds after his dud of a game on Thursday against Princeton. Last year's top-rated high school point guard finished with only two points on 1-of-8 shooting, only his second single-digit scoring output this season.

After that first single-digit game (six points against UConn on Nov. 24) Knight bounced back to post one of his most complete stat lines of the season (23 points, six rebounds, six assists) in a win over Boston University. 

Southeast Region: No. 2 Florida vs. No. 7 UCLA, 2:45 p.m., CBS

Much like the first game on Saturday, this one features two programs with recent history between them ... though no current players were around to experience it. On its way to back-to-back championships in 2006 and 2007, Florida upended UCLA in both the Final Four and championship.

Florida is coming off a 28-point win in its first game, while Ben Howland's UCLA club almost blew a 20+-point lead in the second half against Michigan State.

Southwest Region: No. 12 Richmond vs. No. 13 Morehead State, 5:15 p.m., CBS

We've actually now gotten one of these 12-13 matchups in three of the past four tournaments, so you may want to store that morsel away for next year's bracket.

Anyway, this one should be a walk for Richmond. The Spiders pulled off the toughest upset there is in the tournament, converting the 12-over-a-5 upset that everyone expected to happen. Usually when everyone jumps on the bandwagon of an underdog, it doesn't work out, but Richmond showed why everyone thought they were the real deal.


West Region: No. 2 San Diego State vs. No. 7 Temple, 6:10 p.m., TNT

We should be in store for a fun one, as the Aztecs could be prone to an upset here against the Owls, one of March's perennial upset-makers.

San Diego State has a clear talent advantage and is one of the nation's best rebounding teams in the country. Coach Steve Fisher tends to be a "roll the ball out" type of coach, but it has worked for him this year as the Aztecs have consistently taken good shots (47-percent shooting this season) and fantastic care of the ball (11 turnovers per game).

But Temple will be ready -- the Owls played several top teams this season and beat Georgetown, 68-65, as well as other major-conference schools (Georgia, Maryland, Seton Hall and, now, Penn State).

Southeast Region: No. 1 Pittsburgh vs. No. 8 Butler, 7:10 p.m., TBS

Expect this one to not make it out of the 50s, as both teams like to slug it out down low and make the most of each possession.

The most important thing in this game will be whether or not Butler's Matt Howard can stay out of foul trouble. In the past, the big man has struggled to stay on the floor when Butler takes on big-time opponents. If Howard can give Butler 25-to-30 minutes, that might be enough for Shelvin Mack and Co. to pull off the upset and send our first top seed home. 

Southeast Region: No. 3 BYU vs. No. 11 Gonzaga, 7:45 p.m., CBS

Jimmer Time. Let's go.

Gonzaga is long and athletic, but they sure did BYU a favor by knocking off rugged St. Johns. However, Fredette will need some help -- and probably some rest -- to get through to the Sweet 16.

Fredette has played all 40 minutes in his team's last four games and it has shown a bit in his shooting. If we take out Fredette's 52-point performance within this stretch, the senior has shot 27-of-71 (38 percent) while logging such heavy minutes. Fredette needs someone else to step up and help him; Noah Hartsock (4-of-6, 10 points against Wofford) and Charles Abouo (five points in only 16 minutes, foul trouble) are likely candidates to (hopefully) step up. 

Southeast Region: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Kansas State, 8:40 p.m., TNT

Well, Bo Ryan's Badgers managed to bounce back and score more than 33 points in their opening round victory.

But Kansas State is the team to watch in this contest. Of late, Frank Martin's club has become the team everyone though it could be when the season opened. Kansas State has won seven of its last eight games and Jacob Pullen (24.1 points per game during the stretch) has really hit his stride. 

West Region: No. 3 UConn vs. No. 6 Cincinnati, 9:40 p.m., CBS

Didn't take us long to get a Big East rematch in the tournament, did it?

These two clubs met only once in the regular season, a 67-59 victory for the Huskies. In that game, UConn shot a blistering rate from the field (50 percent from the floor, 53 percent from 3), but struggled to create separation. The Bearcats could pull off the upset if they take better care of the ball and shoot a better percentage from when these two teams first met; Cincy shot 24 percent from deep and committed 17 turnovers in the loss. 

-- Michael Kelly

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Wednesday, March 16, 2011

From the Paper: Jimmer Extra

Couple Jimmer Fredette-themed articles in Thursday's paper (here's one and here's the other) to help get the men's NCAA basketball tournament started.

When interviewing Glens Falls coach Tony Hammel, I asked the coach if he had any idea when he coached Fredette is he would become the collegiate (and, soon-to-be NBA) player that he had.

Hammel said he never thought Fredette would do what he has this season -- "I really don't think you could predict that" -- but he did have an anecdote to share of when he knew Fredette was extra special and not just your run-of-the-mill high-scoring high school ballplayer.

Glens Falls' basketball team plays in a tournament every year in Allentown, Penn. where Hammel grew up. The tournament is played in the summer before the school year and is highly competitive.

"Usually when we go down there, it's a double elimination tournament and we'll win one or two games and then we're done," Hammel said.

But not the summer before Fredette's senior year. Playing against teams from all over Pennsylvania -- including much bigger schools than Glens Falls -- Fredette scored 35 points per game and led Glens Falls to an 8-0 record in the tournament. Fredette was named the tournament's MVP.

"I knew how good he was when he was able to carry us through that tournament and not lose a game," Hammel said.

Glens Falls athletic director Chip Corlew -- who coached Fredette in modified basketball when he was in seventh grade -- said he too was surprised Fredette reached the heights of college basketball that he has, namely, being in the running for National Player of the Year.

"I knew he'd be a very good college player, but I didn't think he would do this," Corlew said.

Corlew didn't expect it, but he's not totally shocked it has happened, either.

"He works out in our gym every summer," Corlew said. "If you could watch him work out, you would know why he is the leading scorer in the country.

"He's earned everything he has gotten."

--Michael Kelly

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The Great Debate: Will the Big East get two in the Final Four?

Matt Donato and Michael Kelly, going at it again!

This time we're debating an over/under for the number of Big East teams in the Final Four in this year's men's NCAA basketball tournament. We set the over/under at 1.5, so feel free to use the comments section to chime in. 

Donato: Arguing for the under

An over/under on Big East teams in the Final Four at 1.5 seems like a relative no-brainer. The under is a Blake Griffin slam dunk.

Like most sports arguments, this one comes down to a reasonably simple equation. The Big East has 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament out of the 68 participating. They represent a mere 16% of the teams in the field. It would take 25% to expect beyond a reasonable doubt that one team should be represented in the Final Four. So two teams seems, in the face of probability, very unlikely.

Granted, you may soon counter by saying that the worst (by seeding) Big East team is Marquette at 11, including a 1 seed, a 2 seed and two 3 seeds, and that should play favorably into their probability. The NCAA Tournament is not played in a vacuum you may say. Good point.

But is that enough to sway the 16% enough to make the over favorable? I say no. 

Kelly: Arguing for the over

OK, first of all -- the Big East has 11 teams in the 64-team field. So, the conference actually has 17 percent of the teams in the real field.

Quibbling? As a certain former Republican ticket member would say, "You betcha!"

Anyway, let's get real about what teams are going to the Final Four. In the last 10 years, only one Final Four combatant has come from outside the top five seeds in a region, so let's cut down our prospective pool of teams for the final weekend to 20 (each regions' 1-5 seeds).

Of those 20 spots, the Big East controls six, so already we're up to a 30-percent chance that one team from the nation's best conference makes it to the Final Four.

Oh, yeah -- of the five non-top 5-seeds in the tournament from the Big East, three of those five are 6-seeds, right on the brink of being in major consideration for a Final Four spot. That gives the Big East nine of the top 24 spots (38 percent) in the Big Dance.

Did I mention this year's Big East was unquestionably the greatest conference in modern college basketball history?

I'll send this back your way, but, honestly, I don't know why we're even continuing this. The Big East is a lock for at least two of the Final Four entries. 

Donato: Under

38% does put us right at the tipping point for 1.5, but this year sports the most wide-open field of any NCAA Tournament that I can harken back to. Every region is loaded with upset specials, and some of them are just waiting to pick apart the weary Big East.

I feel No. 11 Gonzaga is not out of the question to beat No. 6 St. John's, and the Tigers are a strong upset candidate when you consider No. 11 Missouri's RPI: 37 against No. 6 Cincinnati's RPI: 36.

Also, you have to take into consideration them knocking each other out. In the Southwest, if Georgetown makes it past Purdue (I'm thinking, no.) they would likely have to face the 2-seed Notre Dame in the Sweet 16. In the East, if Marquette gets past Xavier they will more than likely draw Syracuse in the second round. In the West if Cincinnati does not get upset by Missouri they are lined up immediately to face Big East Tournament Champion UConn (God, it feels great to write that.) in the second round.

The teams are immediately picking each other off. The brackets were designed to not have two Big East teams reach the Final Four. 

Kelly: Over

OK, so you made a good point about how Big East teams may very well knock each other off in this tournament. But, like any savvy analyst, I'm pretty much just going to ignore that inarguable truth and move on.

What makes this year's field unique for the Big East -- besides have an NCAA-record 11 teams in the field -- is that the handful of very best Big East teams are positioned away from one another, so they all can actually make a Final Four run. This year's Beasts of the East -- Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and UConn -- will not play each other until, at earliest, the Elite Eight (possibly Louisville and Notre Dame). So, while some Big East-on-Big East crime may occur in the early rounds, it should not matter too much to the conference's Final Four chances.

If we agree -- as everyone pretty much does -- that the Big East is the best conference this season, then it's not unreasonable at all to think they could get at least two teams in. Like you said, it's a wide-open field, so there are not a multitude of superpowers from other conferences waiting to take down the Big East's entries.

Kind of to that point -- we're not really even sure if these teams from other conferences can compete with the Big East teams. The Big East dominated the non-conference portion of the year and then beat up -- and improved -- each other in conference play. Duke and Kansas are great, but neither team has gone through the rigors of the Big East schedule.

Furthermore, getting two teams in the Final Four is not even a major stretch for a conference; the Big East just accomplished the feat two years ago when UConn and Villanova each made the final weekend of play. 

Donato: Under

I agree it is not out of the question for the Big East to get two teams into the Final Four. I just think the odds are against such a feat. If the Big East is to pull it off, I believe their best bets come out of the Southeast (Jimmer territory) and the East.

Pitt (RPI 10) is a 1-seed, so they have an edge, but they potentially have to get past either Utah. St. (Seriously, a team ranked 15 in RPI is a 12-seed? Wisconsin is a 4-seed in that region and they are 16th in RPI.) or BYU RPI-5, and then Florida RPI 8.

The East is a different animal. It has four Big East teams therein and is home to my "Ballsy Upset Special". (Ohio State does not make it out of the second round. You heard it here first!) Of course, that is still not probable. Villanova has to beat a sneaky-tough George Mason team just to face the Buckeyes. Syracuse is well-rested after their one-game Big East tourney and I could see them making a run, but their shoddy free throws make me weary of close games.

Louisville and UConn just beat the heck out of themselves on their Big East Tourney run, may not have much left in the tank, and I think my Huskies have used each of their three wishes, including an Aladdin-style trick bonus wish to win every game following the DePaul one. Cincinnati will be a tough game for them and the challenge will only increase with SDSU and Duke likely to follow.

Louisville and Notre Dame are locked in a room with RPI No. 1 Kansas in the Southwest, making escape unlikely. Even though Notre Dame was in contention for a 1 seed, I don't like their matchup with Purdue.

Now, the Big East does seem like Mr. Burn's starting lineup from "Homer at the Bat", but they will be far less formidable unless, of course, my eleven Big East teams fall victim to eleven separate good fortunes and are able to play in the Sweet 16. But that will never happen.

Three good fortunes, that's possible. Seven good fortunes, there's an outside chance. But eleven good fortunes? I'd like to see that!

Actually, I would like to see that, improbable as it may be.

Kelly: Over

I wish you weren't such a huge UConn fan so I could just call you a Big East-hater and dismiss you. Oh well.

Anyway, how about we let the always rational, sane and truth-driven people of the comments section take this one away from here and declare a victor?

Will the Big East get two in or will the other conferences' put their foot down on this "best-ever conference" talk? Keep it classy, profanity-free, and remember to side with the over.

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Sunday, March 13, 2011

Bracket Help

About to enter your family/friends/office pool, but haven't paid too much attention this year? I got you covered.

I won't bore you with who you should pick as your champion -- mine, every year, is North Carolina, regardless of how they do in the regular season; this often comes back to hurt me -- and I won't just go over who the best upsets are, though I did do this the other day here and here.

Instead, here are five general tips for figuring out how you want to predict this year's field ...

1) Beware the East

While the Southeast Region is no slouch, the East bracket really brings the power. The winner of the George Mason/Villanova game could easily topple overall No. 1 Ohio State in the second round and there are several teams -- namely, Kentucky and Washington -- who seemed to be a seed or two better during the regular season than they were given.

My advice is -- unless you have a UNC-bias, as I do -- avoid picking a national champion from the East Region. I think you could make a case for the top nine seeds in this bracket to be your Final Four entry from this region which means no one team has a fantastic shot of making it.

2) Will we get a 12 beating a 5?

Every year, this seems to be the heaviest upset we can expect to happen, so who will it be this year?

Though Utah State is a solid bet in the Southeast Region, my preference is for Richmond over Vanderbilt in the Southwest. Richmond is fresh off winning the Atlantic 10 conference tournament and has won seven games in a row. Plus, the Spiders also won its toughest game of the season -- Purdue in the pre-conference schedule -- so they have big-game experience already.

3) Who has the easiest road to the Final Four?

My money is on Duke for this one, though Kansas is a close second. Duke is the No. 1 seed in the West Region and has as smooth a ride to the Elite Eight as a team could hope for; the only game Duke could lose before the Elite Eight is if floundering Texas gets itself together in time for the Sweet 16.

Duke also gets the benefit of playing the winner of San Diego State/UConn in the Elite Eight. Both those teams are athletic and scrappy, so their Sweet 16 matchup should be a dogfight, perhaps tiring out the victor for its matchup two days later with the Blue Devils.

4) Do we have a Final Four sleeper?

If we consider anyone lower than a 4-seed to be a sleeper, I think we have a few, but my favorite is Kansas State. The 5-seed in the Southeast has a tough first-round game against Utah State, then takes on the winner of Wisconsin/Belmont (I like Belmont for the upset), and then will have a date with No. 1 Pittsburgh.

The Panthers have been a force all season, but historically tend to flame out in the Sweet 16; Pitt has been a power since the early 2000s, but has only once (2009) gone to the Elite Eight. After that, Kansas State will have a winnable game against likely either Florida or BYU.

5) Does Jimmer have a chance?

The unofficial Four More Years Player of the Year does have a shot at March Madness glory because the Selection Committee was very good to our friend, Jimmer Fredette.

Jimmer and the Fredettes got a second-round date with St. Johns, a tough matchup for the Cougars because of the Red Storm's size, but the Johnnies are coming off a loss in which they lost their best player (D.J. Kennedy). St. Johns will be a tough out for BYU in the second round, but it is more than doable and the road gets easier from there.

After that, BYU gets to play Florida, who the Cougars beat in last year's NCAA tournament, albeit in double-overtime.

My take? If you like BYU over St. Johns, you can safely put Jimmer and his crew into the Elite Eight. Of the top teams in that bracket, I don't love BYU matching up with Pitt's size, but Jimmer will likely be favored against any other team in the Elite Eight.

--Michael Kelly

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Thursday, March 10, 2011

From the Paper: Flockerzi played at eccentric Grinnell College

Friday's edition of The Saratogian featured an article on Luke Flockerzi and Jeff Juron, a pair of coaches for the men's basketball team at the University of Rochester. The duo — Flockerzi is the head coach, Juron an assistant who played in high school for Burnt Hills — coached at Skidmore before heading out to Rochester, who is still alive in the D-III NCAA tournament.

It wasn't exactly relevant to the article, but an interesting sidebar is that Flockerzi played his college ball at Grinnell College, a D-III school in Iowa. The team's basketball program gained national attention a few years ago for its unorthodox style of play — simply put, Grinnell runs and guns ... and then runs and guns some more. Grinnell is coached by David Arseneault and routinely leads the country in points per game; this season, Grinnell went 18-7 and scored 102..9 points per game.

For some perspective, the D-1 leader in men's basketball (Virginia Military) averaged 87.9 points per game this season.

Grinnell's system gained national attention in the mid-2000s when ESPN the Magazine did a featured article about the team and then the network showed one of the team's games on TV. The team regularly subs all five players out at the same time and routinely plays more than 15 players so that legs can remain fresh to hoist 3-pointers; this season, the team shot 1,399 shots from behind the arc.

Again, perspective — Virginia Military led D-I in 3-point attempts and "only" took 978 shots from deep.

"It's definitely a different style of game, it's a lot of fun to play," Flockerzi said of Grinnell's approach to the game. "It definitely lends itself to being very team-oriented because everyone gets to contribute."

On this most recent Grinnell squad, 13 players played double-digit minutes and seven players scored more than eight points per game.

More of a role player on the team, Flockerzi (dismissively) said his high-game during his Grinnell career was (just) 22 points. Though not a common occurrence because of the way Grinnell hands out minutes, it is not rare for players on the team to have career-high scoring games in the 30s, 40s and 50s.

Flockerzi said his personal style of play is a mixture of all the coaches he has been around, but his teams do have some Grinnell-like flavor to them. He helped recruit the personnell for this past year's Skidmore squad that took 221 more 3-pointers than any other team in the Liberty League and Flockerzi's Rochester club has scored 75.9 points per game this season.

Mostly, Flockerzi said, Grinnell's style most infused his coaching personality in that he is willing to give his players extra freedom in shot selection and in going for steals on defense.

"(Beacuse of Grinnell) I can live with mistakes of aggression," he said.

--Michael Kelly

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Wednesday, March 9, 2011

March Madness Mid-Majors (Part II)

Yesterday, we took a glance at five mid-majors worth considering for an upset pick or two come bracket-filling out time. Since we try to maintain a Kevin Love-like level of consistency here at Four More Years, here's five more teams to keep in mind this Sunday from your non-powerhouse conferences* ...

Butler Bulldogs (23-9, Horizon League champions)

The Deal: OK, we're not exactly breaking new ground here by telling you that last year's national championship runner-up might be a decent pick for a couple rounds, so we'll treat this as more of just an update on how everyone's favorite Bulldogs did this year. Butler actually had a midseason slump this year -- three straight losses a little over a month ago -- but rebounded from it to the team's current nine-game winning streak.

Your Bracket: Don't go crazy with Butler. Nobody on this year's version has the talent of Gordon Hayward, so Butler will struggle to compete with the big boys. Feel justified in picking them as long as they stay clear of the top two seeds in their bracket.

Cleveland State Viking (26-8, Horizon League regular season co-champions)

The Deal: The Vikings are not a lock to make the tournament field since they would need to do so as an at-large, but Cleveland State is an intriguing squad. They boast an RPI of 41 (as of games completed through Tuesday) which is an impressive ranking for a mid-major and Cleveland State a great singular talent in Norris Cole. The senior guard does a bunch of everything -- 21.6 points per game, six rebounds, 5.3 assists -- and can throw up a crazy stat line with the best of them; in his team's win against Youngstown State, Cole went for 41 points, 20 rebounds and nine assists.

Your Bracket: Unlikely to crack the field, but not a terrible major upset pick, especially if you play in a pool where additional points are given based on a team's seeding. If they snag a 14-seed and play against a fading 3-seed, the Vikings are worth a look.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-9, West Coast Conference champions)

The Deal: Much like the other Bulldogs -- for those just skimming, Butler brought us our first collection of Bulldogs; by the way, Bulldogs is the most common moniker for NCAA teams --we're familiar with the Gonzaga program at this point. But this year's batch of left-coast hoopsters has gone, for the most, under the radar because they lost a bunch of games early in their out-of-conference schedule and lack quality wins. But, here are two of the clubs Gonzaga fell to early in the season -- San Diego State (by three) and Notre Dame (by four). Those two teams turned out to be two of the best 10 in the country and Gonzaga played them very close.

Your Bracket: Gonzaga has won nine games in a row and is peaking at the right time; if they get a favorable draw, they're not out of the Elite 8 picture. A favorable draw for them would include playing teams that are not loaded with super-quick guards (think Kentucky, North Carolina or Villanova).

Hofstra Pride (21-11, CAA runner-up)

The Deal: The Pride are on the bubble, but are a team to watch if they do make it into the field. The CAA was fantastic all year, so despite a lack of quality wins outside the conference, Hofstra has been tested. More importantly, the Pride has Charles Jenkins -- the senior guard averaged 22.9 points per game this season 30+ points four different times this season. Love an underdog that has a top gun capable of carrying a team for a night.

Your Bracket: If they get it, likely in the 13- to 14-seed range. If they get a first-round opponent that is more of a size team -- like Pittsburgh -- the Pride are worth a look.

Long Island Blackbirds (27-5, Northeast champions)

The Deal: Essentially, Long Island has played nobody of consequence this season, as the team's best opponent was the MAAC's Iona ... and the Blackbirds took the L in that one. But, the Blackbirds can score (82.5 points per game, sixth in the country) and rebound (41.8 boards a game, third in the country). If you can score and take care of the glass, you can cause headaches in March.

Your Bracket: Possibly a team headed to one of the play-in games for a 16-seed; worth a pick for that round if that is where they end up.

*I left out BYU and San Diego because both teams have been nationally ranked and discussed for most of the year. Obviously, these teams will be expected to win games in the tournament and won't get a chance to spring an upset.

--Michael Kelly

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Tuesday, March 8, 2011

March Madness Mid-Majors (Part I)


We were thisclose to crowning a mid-major* champion in last year's tournament when the Butler Bulldogs almost pulled off the upset against Duke. We're unlikely to get a school from a small conference to the national championship again this year, but that does not mean we won't get our usual share of never-heard-of-them-before schools creating all types of havoc within our brackets. Here's my look at five mid-major clubs who could easily win a game or more in this year's Big Dance; check back tomorrow for five more small schools worth your time come Selection Sunday.

*Just for the record: Mid-major, for our purposes, is any school not from the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, SEC, or Pac-10. 

Belmont Bruins (30-4, Atlantic Sun champion)

The Deal: I got beat to the punch on this one, as ESPN's college basketball blog did a piece on the Bruins a little bit ago. Basically, two things you need to know about Belmont: First, the Bruins have won 21 of its past 22 games and three of the team's losses came against SEC opponents; second of all, Belmont plays a frenetic style that takes advantage of a deep bench and deft shooting touch that has the team making almost 10 3-pointers a game. 

Your Bracket: Belmont figures to be somewhere in the seeding range of 11-13; at any of those three spots, the Bruins are definitely worth a look. If Belmont is a 12 of 13 and can avoid a 3-seed in the second round, a Sweet 16 spot is not out of the question. 

George Mason Patriots  (26-6, CAA at-large)

The Deal: Our Cinderella story from a few years back, the Patriots lost in their conference tournament but were nationally ranked -- albeit, No. 25 -- before the loss. Prior to the loss to VCU, George Mason had won 16 straight games; I don't care what conference you play in, if you can win 16 games in a row, you're pretty good. Solid, solid team 

Your Bracket: The Patriots are likely to get something in the 9-12 range. If they end up in as a 9-seed, might be a fun pick to win the first game and possibly upset the No. 1 in the second round. Downside to George Mason is that they will not sneak up on any team after its run a few years ago and that might make them first-round vulnerable.

North Carolina-Asheville Bulldogs (19-13, Big South champion)

The Deal: These guys didn't have a great year, but they sure did finish well. The Bulldogs won its last six games, including two wins over Coastal Carolina, who at one point had won 22 straight games this season. 

Your Bracket: How about a real underdog? The Bulldogs will likely be in a play-in game before getting the chance to take on a No. 1 seed. Pick'm in the play-in game and then, hey, eventually a No. 1 seed has to lose right? Oh, right ... probably not. 

Oakland Golden Grizzlies (25-9, Summit League champion)

The Deal: Here is a name for you -- Keith Benson. The senior center is a 17-10 guy and sure utilizes his 6-foot-11 body, shooting 55 percent from the floor. Not just a one-man show, Oakland has four players who score in double digits. The Golden Grizzlies average the second-most points in the nation (85.5 points per game) and will prove to be a tough out for any team in the tournament. 

Your Bracket: A lot will come down to the matchup, but this is definitely a team worth giving a shot for a round or two. Oakland figures to be in the 12-14 range, seed-wise, but the Golden Grizzlies could be a fun first-round sleeper if they get matched up with a team that isn't a defensive juggernaut.  

Old Dominion Monarchs (27-6, CAA champions)

The Deal: Out of the same conference as George Mason in what will likely be a three- or four-bid league, the Monarchs have the best resume of any mid-major. Forget coming out of the country's best mid-major conference for a second, the Monarchs also own wins over the ACC's Clemson and the Atlantic 10's Xavier (not to mention playing the Big East's Georgetown to within three points). 

Your Bracket: My guess is the Monarchs will end up in the 6-8 seed-range in the tournament, so the questions with them are A) do they get matched up with a major conference team struggling down the stretch (Villanova?) in the first round and B) do you like them enough for a Sweet 16 push? My gut feeling is that Old Dominion will get a little too much love in the days leading up to the tournament as the chic mid-major upset pick and end up not being able to sneak up on anyone, so a Sweet 16 push might be tough; definitely like them in the first round, though.

--Michael Kelly

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Wednesday, March 2, 2011

What Davies' dismissal means for BYU and Jimmer

Well, for local fans swept up in Jimmer Fredette this college basketball season, Wednesday's news of the dismissal of Brandon Davies from the BYU Cougars was an Anderson Silva-like kick to the stomach (or head).

Watching BYU get blown out at home against New Mexico on Wednesday night, 82-64, sure didn't help the mood of any Jimmermaniacs.  

I'm going to leave discussion about the cultural issues about Davies dismissal -- as of right now, it's reported that he admitted to having sexual relations with his girlfriend, a no-no under BYU's strict honor code that students must abide by at the school -- and instead focus on the burning question related to the three-week long holiday that starts in a couple weeks: How will this impact Jimmer and the Fredettes in March Madness?

To start, I wrote less than a month ago that BYU was in line to get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, which was true at the time and certainly was a notion that gained considerable momentum in the last couple of weeks.

Now, BYU's resume will still be No. 1 seed worthy if the Cougars win their conference tournament (possible), but without Davies it is unlikely BYU will see its name in the top line. The NCAA tournament selection committee has a history of dropping teams down a peg or two if a star player will miss the tournament. For example, the Kenyon Martin-fueled Cincinnati Bearcats of 2000 spent most of the year at No. 1 in the polls, but saw themselves only receive a three-seed after Martin broke his leg in the Conference USA tournament.

So, BYU's chance for a top seed is out the window, in my opinion, because the Cougars will struggle to pass the smell test of the selection committee without their best rebounder and defensive presence down low.

But it's not like earning a top seed was BYU's goal this season -- probably just winning the Mountain West was the team's goal, truthfully -- and the Cougars will still get a one, two or three come Selection Sunday. If BYU really struggles without Davies and perhaps loses before the final of the team's conference tournament, maybe the Cougars get bumped down to the line of four-seeds, but that's unlikely.

Instead, what Jimmer and the Fredettes need to focus on in the team's remaining handful of games prior to the NCAA tournament is regaining their confidence in the wake of the loss of Davies and figuring out how to adjust their playing style to account for the loss of Davies. If I were in charge of the BYU program -- still waiting for the call -- here would be the three main things on my agenda ...
  1. Tell everyone not to worry at all about the loss to New Mexico on Wednesday night. Yes, it was a blowout loss at home, but recognize that A) BYU had no chance to win on the day it was rocked by the loss of a key cog and B) New Mexico also beat BYU earlier this season and may just have the Cougars' number. Sometimes, no matter how good a team is, an inferior team may just have the matchups in its favor.
  2. Pump up the confidence of Noah Hartsock. The smooth-shooting junior only averages nine points per game, but shoots 52 percent from the floor (and has an effective shooting percentage of 57 percent for the stat geeks out there). BYU needs to make sure Hartsock, who averages less than seven shots a night, is getting plenty of touches
  3. Finally, Jimmer. The Glens Falls native had an off night on Wednesday, scoring 33 points but shooting only 10-of-26 from the floor in doing so. My advice to BYU would be to take the ball out of Fredette's hands a little more often at the start of possessions so opposing defenses can spend less time sending multiple defenders his way early in the shot clock. Like any team with an offensive superstar -- LeBron James when in Cleveland, Michael Jordan in Space Jam --  the Fredettes often find themselves watching and waiting for Jimmer to bail them out with a 35-foot 3-pointer, which needed to change come tournament time, anyway.
When you consider that very last point, that BYU's Jimmer-first and Jimmer-second approach to offense needed to change come March, losing Davies is almost a blessing in disguise; it forces BYU to reconsider itself before the tournament, which could help the team avoid becoming a predictable one-man show come tournament time.

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Sunday, February 13, 2011

Reeling Syracuse Needs Monday Night Win

It was on Jan. 15 that the Syracuse men’s basketball team pushed its record to a perfect 18-0 after a 15-point dismantling of Cincinnati. Ranked fourth in the country and playing as well as anyone in the country, Jim Boeheim’s Orange-clad group had become a chic pick to make a Final Four push come March.

But in the four weeks after the Orange’s big win over the Bearcats, Syracuse has fallen on such hard times that it seems reasonable to suggest that the Orange are no longer even a tournament lock. Since the home win over Cincinnati — Syracuse’s most recent home win, by the way — Boeheim’s bunch have gone 2-6 and fallen into ninth place in the Big East.

It was just a handful of years ago that a different orange-clad team started a season 17-0 and failed to make the NCAA tournament; that time, it was the Clemson Tigers of the ACC who saw their great start end in a final record of 21-10 and an invitation to the NIT.

Remember: The NCAA tournament selection committee takes a long, hard look at how teams fared in the final stretch of the regular season. A great start can easily be undone by a wretched finish in the committee’s eyes.

However, it still is only mid-February which means that Syracuse has more than enough time to turn this around. So, let’s break this down a little bit, starting with the positives …
  • As it stands now, people like ESPN’s Joe Lunardi were giving Syracuse a four-seed as recently as Friday and the team is a solid No. 20 in the RPI. The Orange has 10 quality wins, three of which came against top-30 teams in the RPI.
  • Syracuse has five more regular season games, two of which are against teams — Georgetown and Villanova — that could give the Orange a nice high-profile win. Two of the remaining three games — home meetings with DePaul and Rutgers — are very winnable games for Syracuse.
  • Playing in the Big East has its benefits, as after the regular season the Orange will get to wipe the slate clean and take a crack at registering multiple quality wins in the conference’s postseason tournament.  
But now for the negatives …
  • Those two remaining chances for high-profile regular season wins will both come on the road against clubs who A) are playing much better than Syracuse right now and B) both beat the Orange in the Carrier Dome.
  • The highest number of teams to ever make the tournament from one conference? Eight. The Big East seems a lock to get at least nine, maybe 10, spots this season in the Big Dance thanks to the tournament’s expansion to 68 teams, but Syracuse currently sits in ninth in conference play. That certainly puts them on the bubble.
  • Playing in the Big East also has its negatives. It’s not far-fetched to see a sliding Syracuse find itself out of the conference tournament before the quarterfinal round even starts. As it stands now with Syracuse in ninth place — albeit, just out of eighth place by percentage points — the Orange would need to win two games to make it to the final eight of the Big East’s postseason.
So all of this brings me to the one game I have not mentioned yet — Syracuse’s home affair on Monday night against West Virginia. From my figuring, Monday night’s game is the must-win for the Orange, since it is the team’s best remaining chance to add a top-30 win to its resume. In my opinion, if they defeat West Virginia on Monday night the Orange are in the tournament and will be no worse than a fifth seed; however, a loss to the Mountaineers will put Syracuse in extreme (postseason) peril.

Here’s why: Let’s say Syracuse loses on Monday night, takes care of business against Rutgers, drops both road games against Georgetown and Villanova, and easily dispatches of DePaul; the Orange then fall out of the Big East Tournament in the second round at the hands of someone like St. Johns or UConn.

Such a (likely) hypothetical finish to the Orange’s season would leave Syracuse with a 23-10 record on the season, but only one meaningful win (UConn on Feb. 2) in the season’s final two months. Furthermore, Syracuse would enter Selection Sunday as the losers of 10 of its final 15 games.   

My hunch is that Syracuse takes care of business on Monday night and knocks off West Virginia at the Carrier Dome. Though sliding, it’s tough to envision the Orange losing a fourth straight home game. But, if the clock hits all zeros on Monday night and the scoreboard is showing a victory for the visitors, any Orange-fan panic will not be undeserved.
--Michael Kelly

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Saturday, February 12, 2011

Catching up with the Liberty League (Women's Basketball)

All three local teams — RPI, Skidmore and Union — are still alive and fighting for spots in the Liberty League's four-team postseason tournament. With just one week of regular season games left to play, let's take a look at each of the three teams' chances of advancing to postseason play in the (suddenly) topsy-turvy Liberty League; six teams are within 1 1/2 games of each other in the standings after Saturday's games.

RPI (10-12, 6-5), fifth-place tie 

RPI picked up a big win on Saturday, downing first-place Union, 55-52. The Engineers have a quick turnaround and will host Vassar on Tuesday.

At 6-5 in league play, RPI is likely one of three teams fighting for the conference tournament's fourth and final spot; right now three teams (Union, St. Lawrence and William Smith) sit in a first-place tie at 8-4, while Skidmore (7-5) is in fourth place and Vassar (6-5) is tied with RPI.

For RPI to secure the Liberty's fourth spot, a win on Tuesday is all but a necessity because a loss will put Skidmore 1 1/2 games up and Vassar 1 game up on the Engineers. Looking forward from Tuesday's game, RPI should beat Hamilton (2-10) next weekend while an away game at first-place William Smith will be a challenge.

To have a chance, RPI needs to win at least two games and likely needs all three.

Skidmore (11-11, 7-5), fourth place

The Thoroughbreds did themselves no favor in losing at Vassar on Saturday, 59-49. With a win in Saturday's game, Skidmore would have joined the tie atop the Liberty League and been feeling pretty secure in its positioning for the playoffs.

Even still, Skidmore could be a lot worse off — the Thoroughbreds final two games are at home and one of them is against last-place Clarkson. The other is against first-place St. Lawrence, a team the Thoroughbreds lost to by nine earlier this season.

Given Vassar and RPI still play each other one more time — guaranteeing a loss for one of those two clubs — Skidmore definitely seems to be in the driver's seat.

Union (13-7, 8-4), tied for first place

The Dutchwomen look pretty safe for the tournament; Union is a game up on fourth-place Skidmore and also owns the tiebreaker against the Thoroughbreds, having defeated Skidmore twice this season.

But Union still has work to do — the Dutchwomen would like to earn that top seed, if only because whoever finishes as the top team does not get a first-round date with the two other Liberty League squads currently tied for first.

To this end, things do not break too badly for Union. The Dutchwomen have two remaining games — both at home — and one of them is against last-place Clarkson (2-10). The other one is against St. Lawrence, giving the Dutchwomen a chance to knock off one of its first-place rivals in the final weekend of the season; however, Union did lose to St. Lawrence by 13 points when the two teams met earlier this season.

To finish with the top seed, Union will likely need to win both games. If the Dutchwomen win both games, first place should be there for them — two wins means St. Lawrence has lost and William Smith has a tough back-to-back (fourth-place hopefuls RPI and Vassar) next weekend.

At the very worst, one win should push Union into the postseason as no worse than the fourth seed.

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Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Could Jimmer and BYU snag No. 1 seed?

To answer the (self-posed) question as simply as possible: Yes.

In fact, it may be difficult for them to get anything but a top seed in this year’s Big Dance.

While national — and local — fans have spent a great deal of their college basketball-focused time checking BYU’s box scores to see how many points Jimmer Fredette can score on a given night, what has been overlooked is just how solid of a NCAA Tournament resume is being built out in Provo, Utah.

 Sure, it’s no secret that BYU is having a good year as a team, as evidence by the squad’s No. 8 billing in this week’s ESPN/USA Today poll.

(Note — as we go forward, a ranking written like “No. X” will refer to such team’s rank in the ESPN/USA Today poll; RPI rankings will always be directly referenced.)

But when we look at the math and statistics behind BYU’s season, the Cougars’ campaign gets even more impressive. Granted, BYU cannot afford to drop more than one more game in the regular season and they need to win their conference tournament to have a shot at a top seed, but consider the following …
  • BYU is the current owner of the NCAA’s top RPI. 
  • The Cougars are credited with having the nation’s ninth toughest schedule — and that ranking is bound to improve (more on this later). 
  • Jimmer and the Fredettes — shout out to The Saratogian’s Matt Donato for the moniker —  already own five wins against top-30 RPI teams, with a chance to garner at least one more such win in the regular season. For comparison’s sake, the Kansas Jayhawks own two such wins; undefeated Ohio State owns four such victories; and, Texas has notched three wins against top-30 competition. Meanwhile, Duke has not beaten a single top-30 team.
So, BYU already has a pretty nice resume, especially when compared with other top teams in the country. More importantly, for Jimmer-maniacs, BYU stands to get an added bump in its RPI ranking thanks to some early-season opponents mounting stronger than expected campaigns …

Utah State — BYU defeated Utah State on Nov. 17, 78-72

The Aggies are rolling. The WAC-leader is sitting at 22-2 (11-0 conference) and haven't seen an opponent come withing single digits of them yet in 2011. Utah State is up to No. 17 (RPI: 25) in the poll and will likely keep climbing as nobody in the WAC looks likely to be able to beat them. Every Utah State win helps out BYU's resume.

Vermont — BYU defeated Vermont (at the Civic Center in Glens Falls) on Dec. 8, 86-58

In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the America East power, the Catamounts are sitting pretty at 19-5. While you won't see Vermont anywhere near the Top 25, the Catamounts look poised to finish with an RPI in the top 100. BYU played Vermont simply so Fredette could have his homecoming game, but that game has actually been a huge help to the Cougars' resume.

Arizona — BYU defeated Arizona on Dec. 11, 87-65.

While the Wildcats are a known national commodity, Arizona has not really been a player on the national scene in a few years and nothing much was expected from them this season, either. But, instead, the Wildcats (20-4, 9-2 Pac-10) are in first place in their conference and have pushed themselves up to No. 16 in the country (same as their RPI ranking).  

While BYU has certainly been helped by it's conference's strength — rival San Diego State is No. 6 nationally and has the fourth best RPI — these three above wins are the gifts that keep on giving for BYU. Arizona, Utah State and Vermont figure to keep winning and give BYU the chance to have wins over three potential conference champions.

Now, the final piece of BYU's top-seed puzzle: Geography.

There are essentially three teams — BYU, Kansas and Texas — currently fighting for the top seeds in the tournament's Southwest and West regions. As it stands, ESPN's Joe Lunardi is projecting Kansas to head West (Anaheim) as the top seed and Texas to grab top billing in the Southwest (San Antonio).
But Kansas and Texas are Big 12 conference mates; only one of them can win their conference tournament. It would be tough for me to see the NCAA's selection committee saying a Kansas or Texas squad coming off a conference tournament loss is more worthy of a top seed than a conference-champion BYU squad with a higher RPI, to boot.

Bottom line: If BYU does its part — lose no more than one game and win its conference tournament — Jimmer's bunch will be headlining March Madness as a top seed.

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Friday, January 28, 2011

Your Fredette Fix

“The Jimmer” went viral after scoring 43 points to lead No. 9 BYU past No. 4 San Diego State on Wednesday night, 71-58. Fredette did an interview on ESPN’s SportsCenter after his game, saw his name trend on Twitter that night and then had his game (and pro potential) analyzed in countless articles on Thursday.

In advance of BYU’s televised game on Saturday (1/29) (at New Mexico, 4 p.m., VERSUS), here’s a recap of the carnage in the aftermath of Fredette’s big night …

The Numbers

Before going into everyone’s reaction, let’s take a look at what caused such a stir …
  •  Fredette scored 43 points, or 61 percent of his team’s points; the second highest scorer on BYU was Brandon Davies with 14 points.
  • Fredette shot 14-of-24 from the floor, 5-of-8 from deep, and 10-of-11 from the foul line. He was the only BYU player to make a 3-pointer and made more free throws by himself than San Diego State. 
  • In a stretch of time from 9:08 left in the first half to 18:45 left in the second half, Fredette was the only Cougar to score. During the stretch, Fredette scored 17 points and made 7-of-9 shots from the floor (2-of-2 from deep; 1-of-2 from the line). His streak ended when Davies made a two-point basket.
The Tweets

Here’s a sampling of some of the best tweets after Fredette’s performance, with any typos unchanged. Fredette trended on Twitter throughout the night after his breakout performance. The tweets came from a wide spectrum and touched on his performance, his unique name, race and NBA draft stock.

Kyle Buetler (theBeutlerdidit) wrote: Jimmer Fredette probably wouldn't be near as popular if it weren't for the fact his name is fun to say. #Jimmer

Joe Peters (J_Peters12) wrote: Come on SDSU!... Its like you forgot that Jimmer Fredette plays on the other team... #whatsthematterwithyou

Jason Smith (howaboutafresca) wrote: Watching Jimmer Fredette play is like watching Michael J Fox when he plays basketball as a werewolf in Teen Wolf. More tonight on ESPN Radio*

Nick Blake (fictionalninja) wrote: "Jimmer Fredette" is a cool name, but it's no "Fredder Jimmette." #betterlucknexttime

Steve Flynn (steveflynnlfc) wrote: I think Jimmer Fredette just scored on me.

Bobby Roberts (sweetbob) wrote: Jimmer Fredette was scheduled to be a 2nd round pick if he went pro last year. This year...He's a lottery pick, right?

Ian O’Connor (Ian_OConnor) wrote: Just watched Jimmer Fredette put on quite a show. But sorry, I still don't think his game will translate in the NBA.**

 Thomas Walker (TWEsq) wrote: Guess no one bothered to tell Jimmer Fredette that Woody Harrelson is not a good role model. #greatwhitehype

Adrian Wojnarowski (WojYahooNBA) wrote: Texted with a couple NBA execs at BYU tonight. Says one of Jimmer: "Normal questions about size and athleticism, but he's a special scorer." Later, Wojnarowski tweeted: Another NBA exec at BYU tonight: "Easier to teach 'D' than to drop 25 foot bombs in people's faces. Steph (Curry) didn't defend at Davidson either."***

Issac Boutte (thinicesports) wrote: I've seen the second coming of Larry Bird...and his name is Jimmer Fredette

*Jason Smith is the host of a show on ESPN Radio, “AllNight.”
**Ian O’Connor is a columnist for ESPNNewYork.com
***Adrian Wojnarowski is an NBA writer for Yahoo! Sports.

The Articles

More than a few articles were written about Fredette in the aftermath of his big night. Here’s a collection of a few of them …


Wojnarowski went over how scouts looked at Fredette after last season, how close the Glens Falls product came to being a New Jersey Net and how he is faring battling the stereotypes that tend to plague American-born, white basketball players.

My Note: For those wondering, Fredette is a virtual first-round lock this season by all accounts, the question is just how high he goes. My bet is somewhere in the 10-24 range; the Utah Jazz own two first-round draft picks this season that both should in that range and it’s tough to imagine them not gobbling up a BYU star. If not them, don’t expect Danny Ainge – the Boston Celtics’ president of operation and BYU alum – to pass on Fredette in the late 20s.


This one will really resonate with readers who A) only vaguely know was Twitter is and B) had no clue what it mean to "trend" on Twitter. Moore compared Fredette to a couple of other prolific college scorers from yesteryear in the form of “Pistol” Pete Maravich and Austin Carr.


If you liked reading the tweets above, this article is for you. Eisenberg goes over the national reaction to Fredette’s performance and how it seems the dead-eye shooter has developed a kind of cult-hero status.


Very similar to the article above, Gregory makes the argument that Fredette’s star-status is a product of the Twitter-age.

ESPN's Andy Katz's take 

The long-time ESPN college basketball writer makes the Player of the Year case for Fredette.

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