Saturday, March 19, 2011

Sunday's Round of 32 Preview

We wrap up the early rounds of the men's NCAA tournament on Sunday and punch the tickets of eight more teams to the Sweet 16. Here's a glance at each of the games on the second day of the Round of 32.*

East Region: No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 7 Washington, 12:15 p.m., CBS

The Tar Heels were content to just play along with Long Island in North Carolina's 102-87 win on Friday night. While Long Island is not an offensive slouch -- the Blackbirds averaged 82.6 points per game this season, fourth best in the nation -- the Tar Heels will need to find some semblance of defense in order to get past a very talented Washington club.

The Huskies were ranked early on this season before trailing off in late January. Isaiah Thomas (16.9 points, six assists per game) is one of the nation's most explosive players and senior Matthew Bryan-Amaning (15.3 points, eight rebounds per game) provides the muscle down low for Washington.

The most interesting matchup in this one will be Bryan-Amaning against UNC's Jon Henson down low. Amaning (240 pounds) is a wide body and Henson's body has a stick-figure look to it. Still, the North Carolina sophomore is a top defensive player and is averaging 10.3 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game.

West Region: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 8 Michigan, 2:45 p.m., CBS

The West is the bracket of fate, isn't it? First we get Duke-Michigan on the immediate heels of last weekend's Fab Five documentary which featured these two teams' matchup in the 1991 national championship. Then, possibly down the road, we could get either one of these teams going against ex-Michigan coach Steve Fisher's San Diego State club in the Elite Eight.

Just pointing out that if you believe the selection committee does not consider storyline when making up the bracket, you are painfully naive.

(That, or the selection committee is the luckiest group of people in the world. Your pick.)

Anyway, this game features two of the teams with more impressive tournament debuts. Duke walked past Hampton State, but was able to get Kyrie Irving into the action for a bit, and Michigan trounced a seemingly distracted Tennessee team by 30 points.

Should be an interesting contrast of styles -- Michigan can break out its 1-3-1 zone against Duke, something that I do not think the Blue Devils have faced this season. Should make for an interesting subplot to see how Duke's 3-point shooters react to those wing-to-corner 3-pointers being covered.

East Region: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 George Mason, 5:15 p.m., CBS

I don't think anyone will be too surprised if George Mason pulls off this upset. Coach Jim Larranaga's club cannot sneak up on anyone like it did several years ago in mounting a Final Four run, but this year's Patriots are good enough that they do not need to take anyone by surprise.

Ohio State has more pure talent and will have the best player (Jared Sullinger, the potential No. 1 pick in this year's NBA draft), but George Mason's biggest strength comes against Ohio State's greatest weakness: Guard play. Luke Hancock and Cam Long average a combined 25.9 points per game and take excellent care of the ball, only coughing it up 4.1 times per game between them.

West Region: No. 4 Texas vs. No. 5 Arizona, 6:10 p.m., TNT

This one might be our best game in the entire tournament in terms of potential pro prospects.

Arizona's Derrick Williams is a fantastic prospect and a likely top-5 pick in this upcoming draft. The 6-foot-8 power forward averaged 19.2 points per game this season ... on 61-percent shooting from the floor. He also has a nice touch, connecting on 36-of-59 3-pointers this season (61 percent). Williams went for 22 points and 10 rebounds in his team's opening victory over Memphis.

Texas has a couple pro prospects, its best being Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson. Hamilton, a 6-foot-7 sophomore, averaged 18.7 points per game this season, while Thompson is more of a stat-sheet stuffer. The freshman averaged 13.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, and compiled 17 points, 10 rebounds and seven blocks in his team's second-round victory against Oakland.

Southwest Region: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 11 VCU, 7:10 p.m., TBS

VCU has already won two games in this tournament and might be able to pull off the upset here, too. Purdue's losing of Kelsey Barlow didn't hurt the Boilermakers in their blowout of St. Peters, but VCU may be the tournament's hottest team right now. The Rams have won four of their last five games, with wins over George Mason, USC and Georgetown -- that's a pretty impressive list.

East Region: No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 11 Marquette, 7:45 p.m., truTV

Just another Big East battle.

Syracuse has a chance to avenge one of its regular-season losses in this one. The Orange lost to Marquette at the tail-end of Syracuse's four-game losing streak at the end of January that temporarily derailed the team after its fantastic start.

Back when they met in January, Syracuse's vaunted zone defense was no match for Jae Crowder, who sliced and diced his way to 25 points. The Golden Eagles also connected on 6-of-13 3-pointers and managed to get to the line for 33 free-throw attempts.

Jim Boeheim's club will need to tighten up its defense in order to reverse January's game-result. A better game from guard Brandon Triche

Southwest Region: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 9 Illinois, 8:40 p.m., TNT

This seems like a game we should just be able to (rock) chalk up a win for the Jayhawks, but Illinois was so impressive in its victory against UNLV. Up 22 points at the half, Illinois coasted a bit in the second half, but still managed an 11-point win.

In order to pull off the upset, Illinois needs to play a full game and get better ball protection from point guard Demetri McCamey (seven assists, six turnovers).

Southwest Region: No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Florida State, 9:40 p.m., TBS

Let's not waste our time -- Notre Dame is probably playing the best basketball in the NCAA, winning 13 of their last 15 games. Mike Brey and his club are moving on to the Sweet 16.  

*Consider my mailing in of that final game to be retribution for the NCAA allowing this batch of games to be dubbed the "Round of 32." Seriously, NCAA? Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four ... and Round of 32?

--Michael Kelly

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Sunday, February 13, 2011

Reeling Syracuse Needs Monday Night Win

It was on Jan. 15 that the Syracuse men’s basketball team pushed its record to a perfect 18-0 after a 15-point dismantling of Cincinnati. Ranked fourth in the country and playing as well as anyone in the country, Jim Boeheim’s Orange-clad group had become a chic pick to make a Final Four push come March.

But in the four weeks after the Orange’s big win over the Bearcats, Syracuse has fallen on such hard times that it seems reasonable to suggest that the Orange are no longer even a tournament lock. Since the home win over Cincinnati — Syracuse’s most recent home win, by the way — Boeheim’s bunch have gone 2-6 and fallen into ninth place in the Big East.

It was just a handful of years ago that a different orange-clad team started a season 17-0 and failed to make the NCAA tournament; that time, it was the Clemson Tigers of the ACC who saw their great start end in a final record of 21-10 and an invitation to the NIT.

Remember: The NCAA tournament selection committee takes a long, hard look at how teams fared in the final stretch of the regular season. A great start can easily be undone by a wretched finish in the committee’s eyes.

However, it still is only mid-February which means that Syracuse has more than enough time to turn this around. So, let’s break this down a little bit, starting with the positives …
  • As it stands now, people like ESPN’s Joe Lunardi were giving Syracuse a four-seed as recently as Friday and the team is a solid No. 20 in the RPI. The Orange has 10 quality wins, three of which came against top-30 teams in the RPI.
  • Syracuse has five more regular season games, two of which are against teams — Georgetown and Villanova — that could give the Orange a nice high-profile win. Two of the remaining three games — home meetings with DePaul and Rutgers — are very winnable games for Syracuse.
  • Playing in the Big East has its benefits, as after the regular season the Orange will get to wipe the slate clean and take a crack at registering multiple quality wins in the conference’s postseason tournament.  
But now for the negatives …
  • Those two remaining chances for high-profile regular season wins will both come on the road against clubs who A) are playing much better than Syracuse right now and B) both beat the Orange in the Carrier Dome.
  • The highest number of teams to ever make the tournament from one conference? Eight. The Big East seems a lock to get at least nine, maybe 10, spots this season in the Big Dance thanks to the tournament’s expansion to 68 teams, but Syracuse currently sits in ninth in conference play. That certainly puts them on the bubble.
  • Playing in the Big East also has its negatives. It’s not far-fetched to see a sliding Syracuse find itself out of the conference tournament before the quarterfinal round even starts. As it stands now with Syracuse in ninth place — albeit, just out of eighth place by percentage points — the Orange would need to win two games to make it to the final eight of the Big East’s postseason.
So all of this brings me to the one game I have not mentioned yet — Syracuse’s home affair on Monday night against West Virginia. From my figuring, Monday night’s game is the must-win for the Orange, since it is the team’s best remaining chance to add a top-30 win to its resume. In my opinion, if they defeat West Virginia on Monday night the Orange are in the tournament and will be no worse than a fifth seed; however, a loss to the Mountaineers will put Syracuse in extreme (postseason) peril.

Here’s why: Let’s say Syracuse loses on Monday night, takes care of business against Rutgers, drops both road games against Georgetown and Villanova, and easily dispatches of DePaul; the Orange then fall out of the Big East Tournament in the second round at the hands of someone like St. Johns or UConn.

Such a (likely) hypothetical finish to the Orange’s season would leave Syracuse with a 23-10 record on the season, but only one meaningful win (UConn on Feb. 2) in the season’s final two months. Furthermore, Syracuse would enter Selection Sunday as the losers of 10 of its final 15 games.   

My hunch is that Syracuse takes care of business on Monday night and knocks off West Virginia at the Carrier Dome. Though sliding, it’s tough to envision the Orange losing a fourth straight home game. But, if the clock hits all zeros on Monday night and the scoreboard is showing a victory for the visitors, any Orange-fan panic will not be undeserved.
--Michael Kelly

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