Friday, March 18, 2011

Saturday's Round of 32 Preview

Eight more games on the slate for Saturday's NCAA men's basketball tournament as the Madness moves into Day 3. Here's a quick look at each of Saturday's games. 

East Region: No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 5 West Virginia, 12:15 p.m., CBS

This is a rematch of one of last year's Elite Eight contests, though neither squad has too many, if any, impact players back from last year. Much like last year, Kentucky would seem to have an advantage in pure talent and athleticism, so it will be interesting to see if Bob Huggins can outwork John Calipari once again.

Should be fun to see how Kentucky's much-ballyhooed freshman point guard, Brandon Knight, responds after his dud of a game on Thursday against Princeton. Last year's top-rated high school point guard finished with only two points on 1-of-8 shooting, only his second single-digit scoring output this season.

After that first single-digit game (six points against UConn on Nov. 24) Knight bounced back to post one of his most complete stat lines of the season (23 points, six rebounds, six assists) in a win over Boston University. 

Southeast Region: No. 2 Florida vs. No. 7 UCLA, 2:45 p.m., CBS

Much like the first game on Saturday, this one features two programs with recent history between them ... though no current players were around to experience it. On its way to back-to-back championships in 2006 and 2007, Florida upended UCLA in both the Final Four and championship.

Florida is coming off a 28-point win in its first game, while Ben Howland's UCLA club almost blew a 20+-point lead in the second half against Michigan State.

Southwest Region: No. 12 Richmond vs. No. 13 Morehead State, 5:15 p.m., CBS

We've actually now gotten one of these 12-13 matchups in three of the past four tournaments, so you may want to store that morsel away for next year's bracket.

Anyway, this one should be a walk for Richmond. The Spiders pulled off the toughest upset there is in the tournament, converting the 12-over-a-5 upset that everyone expected to happen. Usually when everyone jumps on the bandwagon of an underdog, it doesn't work out, but Richmond showed why everyone thought they were the real deal.


West Region: No. 2 San Diego State vs. No. 7 Temple, 6:10 p.m., TNT

We should be in store for a fun one, as the Aztecs could be prone to an upset here against the Owls, one of March's perennial upset-makers.

San Diego State has a clear talent advantage and is one of the nation's best rebounding teams in the country. Coach Steve Fisher tends to be a "roll the ball out" type of coach, but it has worked for him this year as the Aztecs have consistently taken good shots (47-percent shooting this season) and fantastic care of the ball (11 turnovers per game).

But Temple will be ready -- the Owls played several top teams this season and beat Georgetown, 68-65, as well as other major-conference schools (Georgia, Maryland, Seton Hall and, now, Penn State).

Southeast Region: No. 1 Pittsburgh vs. No. 8 Butler, 7:10 p.m., TBS

Expect this one to not make it out of the 50s, as both teams like to slug it out down low and make the most of each possession.

The most important thing in this game will be whether or not Butler's Matt Howard can stay out of foul trouble. In the past, the big man has struggled to stay on the floor when Butler takes on big-time opponents. If Howard can give Butler 25-to-30 minutes, that might be enough for Shelvin Mack and Co. to pull off the upset and send our first top seed home. 

Southeast Region: No. 3 BYU vs. No. 11 Gonzaga, 7:45 p.m., CBS

Jimmer Time. Let's go.

Gonzaga is long and athletic, but they sure did BYU a favor by knocking off rugged St. Johns. However, Fredette will need some help -- and probably some rest -- to get through to the Sweet 16.

Fredette has played all 40 minutes in his team's last four games and it has shown a bit in his shooting. If we take out Fredette's 52-point performance within this stretch, the senior has shot 27-of-71 (38 percent) while logging such heavy minutes. Fredette needs someone else to step up and help him; Noah Hartsock (4-of-6, 10 points against Wofford) and Charles Abouo (five points in only 16 minutes, foul trouble) are likely candidates to (hopefully) step up. 

Southeast Region: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Kansas State, 8:40 p.m., TNT

Well, Bo Ryan's Badgers managed to bounce back and score more than 33 points in their opening round victory.

But Kansas State is the team to watch in this contest. Of late, Frank Martin's club has become the team everyone though it could be when the season opened. Kansas State has won seven of its last eight games and Jacob Pullen (24.1 points per game during the stretch) has really hit his stride. 

West Region: No. 3 UConn vs. No. 6 Cincinnati, 9:40 p.m., CBS

Didn't take us long to get a Big East rematch in the tournament, did it?

These two clubs met only once in the regular season, a 67-59 victory for the Huskies. In that game, UConn shot a blistering rate from the field (50 percent from the floor, 53 percent from 3), but struggled to create separation. The Bearcats could pull off the upset if they take better care of the ball and shoot a better percentage from when these two teams first met; Cincy shot 24 percent from deep and committed 17 turnovers in the loss. 

-- Michael Kelly

Labels: , , , , , , ,

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

What Davies' dismissal means for BYU and Jimmer

Well, for local fans swept up in Jimmer Fredette this college basketball season, Wednesday's news of the dismissal of Brandon Davies from the BYU Cougars was an Anderson Silva-like kick to the stomach (or head).

Watching BYU get blown out at home against New Mexico on Wednesday night, 82-64, sure didn't help the mood of any Jimmermaniacs.  

I'm going to leave discussion about the cultural issues about Davies dismissal -- as of right now, it's reported that he admitted to having sexual relations with his girlfriend, a no-no under BYU's strict honor code that students must abide by at the school -- and instead focus on the burning question related to the three-week long holiday that starts in a couple weeks: How will this impact Jimmer and the Fredettes in March Madness?

To start, I wrote less than a month ago that BYU was in line to get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, which was true at the time and certainly was a notion that gained considerable momentum in the last couple of weeks.

Now, BYU's resume will still be No. 1 seed worthy if the Cougars win their conference tournament (possible), but without Davies it is unlikely BYU will see its name in the top line. The NCAA tournament selection committee has a history of dropping teams down a peg or two if a star player will miss the tournament. For example, the Kenyon Martin-fueled Cincinnati Bearcats of 2000 spent most of the year at No. 1 in the polls, but saw themselves only receive a three-seed after Martin broke his leg in the Conference USA tournament.

So, BYU's chance for a top seed is out the window, in my opinion, because the Cougars will struggle to pass the smell test of the selection committee without their best rebounder and defensive presence down low.

But it's not like earning a top seed was BYU's goal this season -- probably just winning the Mountain West was the team's goal, truthfully -- and the Cougars will still get a one, two or three come Selection Sunday. If BYU really struggles without Davies and perhaps loses before the final of the team's conference tournament, maybe the Cougars get bumped down to the line of four-seeds, but that's unlikely.

Instead, what Jimmer and the Fredettes need to focus on in the team's remaining handful of games prior to the NCAA tournament is regaining their confidence in the wake of the loss of Davies and figuring out how to adjust their playing style to account for the loss of Davies. If I were in charge of the BYU program -- still waiting for the call -- here would be the three main things on my agenda ...
  1. Tell everyone not to worry at all about the loss to New Mexico on Wednesday night. Yes, it was a blowout loss at home, but recognize that A) BYU had no chance to win on the day it was rocked by the loss of a key cog and B) New Mexico also beat BYU earlier this season and may just have the Cougars' number. Sometimes, no matter how good a team is, an inferior team may just have the matchups in its favor.
  2. Pump up the confidence of Noah Hartsock. The smooth-shooting junior only averages nine points per game, but shoots 52 percent from the floor (and has an effective shooting percentage of 57 percent for the stat geeks out there). BYU needs to make sure Hartsock, who averages less than seven shots a night, is getting plenty of touches
  3. Finally, Jimmer. The Glens Falls native had an off night on Wednesday, scoring 33 points but shooting only 10-of-26 from the floor in doing so. My advice to BYU would be to take the ball out of Fredette's hands a little more often at the start of possessions so opposing defenses can spend less time sending multiple defenders his way early in the shot clock. Like any team with an offensive superstar -- LeBron James when in Cleveland, Michael Jordan in Space Jam --  the Fredettes often find themselves watching and waiting for Jimmer to bail them out with a 35-foot 3-pointer, which needed to change come tournament time, anyway.
When you consider that very last point, that BYU's Jimmer-first and Jimmer-second approach to offense needed to change come March, losing Davies is almost a blessing in disguise; it forces BYU to reconsider itself before the tournament, which could help the team avoid becoming a predictable one-man show come tournament time.

Labels: , , , , ,

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Could Jimmer and BYU snag No. 1 seed?

To answer the (self-posed) question as simply as possible: Yes.

In fact, it may be difficult for them to get anything but a top seed in this year’s Big Dance.

While national — and local — fans have spent a great deal of their college basketball-focused time checking BYU’s box scores to see how many points Jimmer Fredette can score on a given night, what has been overlooked is just how solid of a NCAA Tournament resume is being built out in Provo, Utah.

 Sure, it’s no secret that BYU is having a good year as a team, as evidence by the squad’s No. 8 billing in this week’s ESPN/USA Today poll.

(Note — as we go forward, a ranking written like “No. X” will refer to such team’s rank in the ESPN/USA Today poll; RPI rankings will always be directly referenced.)

But when we look at the math and statistics behind BYU’s season, the Cougars’ campaign gets even more impressive. Granted, BYU cannot afford to drop more than one more game in the regular season and they need to win their conference tournament to have a shot at a top seed, but consider the following …
  • BYU is the current owner of the NCAA’s top RPI. 
  • The Cougars are credited with having the nation’s ninth toughest schedule — and that ranking is bound to improve (more on this later). 
  • Jimmer and the Fredettes — shout out to The Saratogian’s Matt Donato for the moniker —  already own five wins against top-30 RPI teams, with a chance to garner at least one more such win in the regular season. For comparison’s sake, the Kansas Jayhawks own two such wins; undefeated Ohio State owns four such victories; and, Texas has notched three wins against top-30 competition. Meanwhile, Duke has not beaten a single top-30 team.
So, BYU already has a pretty nice resume, especially when compared with other top teams in the country. More importantly, for Jimmer-maniacs, BYU stands to get an added bump in its RPI ranking thanks to some early-season opponents mounting stronger than expected campaigns …

Utah State — BYU defeated Utah State on Nov. 17, 78-72

The Aggies are rolling. The WAC-leader is sitting at 22-2 (11-0 conference) and haven't seen an opponent come withing single digits of them yet in 2011. Utah State is up to No. 17 (RPI: 25) in the poll and will likely keep climbing as nobody in the WAC looks likely to be able to beat them. Every Utah State win helps out BYU's resume.

Vermont — BYU defeated Vermont (at the Civic Center in Glens Falls) on Dec. 8, 86-58

In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the America East power, the Catamounts are sitting pretty at 19-5. While you won't see Vermont anywhere near the Top 25, the Catamounts look poised to finish with an RPI in the top 100. BYU played Vermont simply so Fredette could have his homecoming game, but that game has actually been a huge help to the Cougars' resume.

Arizona — BYU defeated Arizona on Dec. 11, 87-65.

While the Wildcats are a known national commodity, Arizona has not really been a player on the national scene in a few years and nothing much was expected from them this season, either. But, instead, the Wildcats (20-4, 9-2 Pac-10) are in first place in their conference and have pushed themselves up to No. 16 in the country (same as their RPI ranking).  

While BYU has certainly been helped by it's conference's strength — rival San Diego State is No. 6 nationally and has the fourth best RPI — these three above wins are the gifts that keep on giving for BYU. Arizona, Utah State and Vermont figure to keep winning and give BYU the chance to have wins over three potential conference champions.

Now, the final piece of BYU's top-seed puzzle: Geography.

There are essentially three teams — BYU, Kansas and Texas — currently fighting for the top seeds in the tournament's Southwest and West regions. As it stands, ESPN's Joe Lunardi is projecting Kansas to head West (Anaheim) as the top seed and Texas to grab top billing in the Southwest (San Antonio).
But Kansas and Texas are Big 12 conference mates; only one of them can win their conference tournament. It would be tough for me to see the NCAA's selection committee saying a Kansas or Texas squad coming off a conference tournament loss is more worthy of a top seed than a conference-champion BYU squad with a higher RPI, to boot.

Bottom line: If BYU does its part — lose no more than one game and win its conference tournament — Jimmer's bunch will be headlining March Madness as a top seed.

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Friday, January 28, 2011

Your Fredette Fix

“The Jimmer” went viral after scoring 43 points to lead No. 9 BYU past No. 4 San Diego State on Wednesday night, 71-58. Fredette did an interview on ESPN’s SportsCenter after his game, saw his name trend on Twitter that night and then had his game (and pro potential) analyzed in countless articles on Thursday.

In advance of BYU’s televised game on Saturday (1/29) (at New Mexico, 4 p.m., VERSUS), here’s a recap of the carnage in the aftermath of Fredette’s big night …

The Numbers

Before going into everyone’s reaction, let’s take a look at what caused such a stir …
  •  Fredette scored 43 points, or 61 percent of his team’s points; the second highest scorer on BYU was Brandon Davies with 14 points.
  • Fredette shot 14-of-24 from the floor, 5-of-8 from deep, and 10-of-11 from the foul line. He was the only BYU player to make a 3-pointer and made more free throws by himself than San Diego State. 
  • In a stretch of time from 9:08 left in the first half to 18:45 left in the second half, Fredette was the only Cougar to score. During the stretch, Fredette scored 17 points and made 7-of-9 shots from the floor (2-of-2 from deep; 1-of-2 from the line). His streak ended when Davies made a two-point basket.
The Tweets

Here’s a sampling of some of the best tweets after Fredette’s performance, with any typos unchanged. Fredette trended on Twitter throughout the night after his breakout performance. The tweets came from a wide spectrum and touched on his performance, his unique name, race and NBA draft stock.

Kyle Buetler (theBeutlerdidit) wrote: Jimmer Fredette probably wouldn't be near as popular if it weren't for the fact his name is fun to say. #Jimmer

Joe Peters (J_Peters12) wrote: Come on SDSU!... Its like you forgot that Jimmer Fredette plays on the other team... #whatsthematterwithyou

Jason Smith (howaboutafresca) wrote: Watching Jimmer Fredette play is like watching Michael J Fox when he plays basketball as a werewolf in Teen Wolf. More tonight on ESPN Radio*

Nick Blake (fictionalninja) wrote: "Jimmer Fredette" is a cool name, but it's no "Fredder Jimmette." #betterlucknexttime

Steve Flynn (steveflynnlfc) wrote: I think Jimmer Fredette just scored on me.

Bobby Roberts (sweetbob) wrote: Jimmer Fredette was scheduled to be a 2nd round pick if he went pro last year. This year...He's a lottery pick, right?

Ian O’Connor (Ian_OConnor) wrote: Just watched Jimmer Fredette put on quite a show. But sorry, I still don't think his game will translate in the NBA.**

 Thomas Walker (TWEsq) wrote: Guess no one bothered to tell Jimmer Fredette that Woody Harrelson is not a good role model. #greatwhitehype

Adrian Wojnarowski (WojYahooNBA) wrote: Texted with a couple NBA execs at BYU tonight. Says one of Jimmer: "Normal questions about size and athleticism, but he's a special scorer." Later, Wojnarowski tweeted: Another NBA exec at BYU tonight: "Easier to teach 'D' than to drop 25 foot bombs in people's faces. Steph (Curry) didn't defend at Davidson either."***

Issac Boutte (thinicesports) wrote: I've seen the second coming of Larry Bird...and his name is Jimmer Fredette

*Jason Smith is the host of a show on ESPN Radio, “AllNight.”
**Ian O’Connor is a columnist for ESPNNewYork.com
***Adrian Wojnarowski is an NBA writer for Yahoo! Sports.

The Articles

More than a few articles were written about Fredette in the aftermath of his big night. Here’s a collection of a few of them …


Wojnarowski went over how scouts looked at Fredette after last season, how close the Glens Falls product came to being a New Jersey Net and how he is faring battling the stereotypes that tend to plague American-born, white basketball players.

My Note: For those wondering, Fredette is a virtual first-round lock this season by all accounts, the question is just how high he goes. My bet is somewhere in the 10-24 range; the Utah Jazz own two first-round draft picks this season that both should in that range and it’s tough to imagine them not gobbling up a BYU star. If not them, don’t expect Danny Ainge – the Boston Celtics’ president of operation and BYU alum – to pass on Fredette in the late 20s.


This one will really resonate with readers who A) only vaguely know was Twitter is and B) had no clue what it mean to "trend" on Twitter. Moore compared Fredette to a couple of other prolific college scorers from yesteryear in the form of “Pistol” Pete Maravich and Austin Carr.


If you liked reading the tweets above, this article is for you. Eisenberg goes over the national reaction to Fredette’s performance and how it seems the dead-eye shooter has developed a kind of cult-hero status.


Very similar to the article above, Gregory makes the argument that Fredette’s star-status is a product of the Twitter-age.

ESPN's Andy Katz's take 

The long-time ESPN college basketball writer makes the Player of the Year case for Fredette.

Labels: , , , , , , ,