Saturday, March 19, 2011

Sunday's Round of 32 Preview

We wrap up the early rounds of the men's NCAA tournament on Sunday and punch the tickets of eight more teams to the Sweet 16. Here's a glance at each of the games on the second day of the Round of 32.*

East Region: No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 7 Washington, 12:15 p.m., CBS

The Tar Heels were content to just play along with Long Island in North Carolina's 102-87 win on Friday night. While Long Island is not an offensive slouch -- the Blackbirds averaged 82.6 points per game this season, fourth best in the nation -- the Tar Heels will need to find some semblance of defense in order to get past a very talented Washington club.

The Huskies were ranked early on this season before trailing off in late January. Isaiah Thomas (16.9 points, six assists per game) is one of the nation's most explosive players and senior Matthew Bryan-Amaning (15.3 points, eight rebounds per game) provides the muscle down low for Washington.

The most interesting matchup in this one will be Bryan-Amaning against UNC's Jon Henson down low. Amaning (240 pounds) is a wide body and Henson's body has a stick-figure look to it. Still, the North Carolina sophomore is a top defensive player and is averaging 10.3 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game.

West Region: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 8 Michigan, 2:45 p.m., CBS

The West is the bracket of fate, isn't it? First we get Duke-Michigan on the immediate heels of last weekend's Fab Five documentary which featured these two teams' matchup in the 1991 national championship. Then, possibly down the road, we could get either one of these teams going against ex-Michigan coach Steve Fisher's San Diego State club in the Elite Eight.

Just pointing out that if you believe the selection committee does not consider storyline when making up the bracket, you are painfully naive.

(That, or the selection committee is the luckiest group of people in the world. Your pick.)

Anyway, this game features two of the teams with more impressive tournament debuts. Duke walked past Hampton State, but was able to get Kyrie Irving into the action for a bit, and Michigan trounced a seemingly distracted Tennessee team by 30 points.

Should be an interesting contrast of styles -- Michigan can break out its 1-3-1 zone against Duke, something that I do not think the Blue Devils have faced this season. Should make for an interesting subplot to see how Duke's 3-point shooters react to those wing-to-corner 3-pointers being covered.

East Region: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 George Mason, 5:15 p.m., CBS

I don't think anyone will be too surprised if George Mason pulls off this upset. Coach Jim Larranaga's club cannot sneak up on anyone like it did several years ago in mounting a Final Four run, but this year's Patriots are good enough that they do not need to take anyone by surprise.

Ohio State has more pure talent and will have the best player (Jared Sullinger, the potential No. 1 pick in this year's NBA draft), but George Mason's biggest strength comes against Ohio State's greatest weakness: Guard play. Luke Hancock and Cam Long average a combined 25.9 points per game and take excellent care of the ball, only coughing it up 4.1 times per game between them.

West Region: No. 4 Texas vs. No. 5 Arizona, 6:10 p.m., TNT

This one might be our best game in the entire tournament in terms of potential pro prospects.

Arizona's Derrick Williams is a fantastic prospect and a likely top-5 pick in this upcoming draft. The 6-foot-8 power forward averaged 19.2 points per game this season ... on 61-percent shooting from the floor. He also has a nice touch, connecting on 36-of-59 3-pointers this season (61 percent). Williams went for 22 points and 10 rebounds in his team's opening victory over Memphis.

Texas has a couple pro prospects, its best being Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson. Hamilton, a 6-foot-7 sophomore, averaged 18.7 points per game this season, while Thompson is more of a stat-sheet stuffer. The freshman averaged 13.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, and compiled 17 points, 10 rebounds and seven blocks in his team's second-round victory against Oakland.

Southwest Region: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 11 VCU, 7:10 p.m., TBS

VCU has already won two games in this tournament and might be able to pull off the upset here, too. Purdue's losing of Kelsey Barlow didn't hurt the Boilermakers in their blowout of St. Peters, but VCU may be the tournament's hottest team right now. The Rams have won four of their last five games, with wins over George Mason, USC and Georgetown -- that's a pretty impressive list.

East Region: No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 11 Marquette, 7:45 p.m., truTV

Just another Big East battle.

Syracuse has a chance to avenge one of its regular-season losses in this one. The Orange lost to Marquette at the tail-end of Syracuse's four-game losing streak at the end of January that temporarily derailed the team after its fantastic start.

Back when they met in January, Syracuse's vaunted zone defense was no match for Jae Crowder, who sliced and diced his way to 25 points. The Golden Eagles also connected on 6-of-13 3-pointers and managed to get to the line for 33 free-throw attempts.

Jim Boeheim's club will need to tighten up its defense in order to reverse January's game-result. A better game from guard Brandon Triche

Southwest Region: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 9 Illinois, 8:40 p.m., TNT

This seems like a game we should just be able to (rock) chalk up a win for the Jayhawks, but Illinois was so impressive in its victory against UNLV. Up 22 points at the half, Illinois coasted a bit in the second half, but still managed an 11-point win.

In order to pull off the upset, Illinois needs to play a full game and get better ball protection from point guard Demetri McCamey (seven assists, six turnovers).

Southwest Region: No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Florida State, 9:40 p.m., TBS

Let's not waste our time -- Notre Dame is probably playing the best basketball in the NCAA, winning 13 of their last 15 games. Mike Brey and his club are moving on to the Sweet 16.  

*Consider my mailing in of that final game to be retribution for the NCAA allowing this batch of games to be dubbed the "Round of 32." Seriously, NCAA? Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four ... and Round of 32?

--Michael Kelly

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Wednesday, March 16, 2011

The Great Debate: Will the Big East get two in the Final Four?

Matt Donato and Michael Kelly, going at it again!

This time we're debating an over/under for the number of Big East teams in the Final Four in this year's men's NCAA basketball tournament. We set the over/under at 1.5, so feel free to use the comments section to chime in. 

Donato: Arguing for the under

An over/under on Big East teams in the Final Four at 1.5 seems like a relative no-brainer. The under is a Blake Griffin slam dunk.

Like most sports arguments, this one comes down to a reasonably simple equation. The Big East has 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament out of the 68 participating. They represent a mere 16% of the teams in the field. It would take 25% to expect beyond a reasonable doubt that one team should be represented in the Final Four. So two teams seems, in the face of probability, very unlikely.

Granted, you may soon counter by saying that the worst (by seeding) Big East team is Marquette at 11, including a 1 seed, a 2 seed and two 3 seeds, and that should play favorably into their probability. The NCAA Tournament is not played in a vacuum you may say. Good point.

But is that enough to sway the 16% enough to make the over favorable? I say no. 

Kelly: Arguing for the over

OK, first of all -- the Big East has 11 teams in the 64-team field. So, the conference actually has 17 percent of the teams in the real field.

Quibbling? As a certain former Republican ticket member would say, "You betcha!"

Anyway, let's get real about what teams are going to the Final Four. In the last 10 years, only one Final Four combatant has come from outside the top five seeds in a region, so let's cut down our prospective pool of teams for the final weekend to 20 (each regions' 1-5 seeds).

Of those 20 spots, the Big East controls six, so already we're up to a 30-percent chance that one team from the nation's best conference makes it to the Final Four.

Oh, yeah -- of the five non-top 5-seeds in the tournament from the Big East, three of those five are 6-seeds, right on the brink of being in major consideration for a Final Four spot. That gives the Big East nine of the top 24 spots (38 percent) in the Big Dance.

Did I mention this year's Big East was unquestionably the greatest conference in modern college basketball history?

I'll send this back your way, but, honestly, I don't know why we're even continuing this. The Big East is a lock for at least two of the Final Four entries. 

Donato: Under

38% does put us right at the tipping point for 1.5, but this year sports the most wide-open field of any NCAA Tournament that I can harken back to. Every region is loaded with upset specials, and some of them are just waiting to pick apart the weary Big East.

I feel No. 11 Gonzaga is not out of the question to beat No. 6 St. John's, and the Tigers are a strong upset candidate when you consider No. 11 Missouri's RPI: 37 against No. 6 Cincinnati's RPI: 36.

Also, you have to take into consideration them knocking each other out. In the Southwest, if Georgetown makes it past Purdue (I'm thinking, no.) they would likely have to face the 2-seed Notre Dame in the Sweet 16. In the East, if Marquette gets past Xavier they will more than likely draw Syracuse in the second round. In the West if Cincinnati does not get upset by Missouri they are lined up immediately to face Big East Tournament Champion UConn (God, it feels great to write that.) in the second round.

The teams are immediately picking each other off. The brackets were designed to not have two Big East teams reach the Final Four. 

Kelly: Over

OK, so you made a good point about how Big East teams may very well knock each other off in this tournament. But, like any savvy analyst, I'm pretty much just going to ignore that inarguable truth and move on.

What makes this year's field unique for the Big East -- besides have an NCAA-record 11 teams in the field -- is that the handful of very best Big East teams are positioned away from one another, so they all can actually make a Final Four run. This year's Beasts of the East -- Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and UConn -- will not play each other until, at earliest, the Elite Eight (possibly Louisville and Notre Dame). So, while some Big East-on-Big East crime may occur in the early rounds, it should not matter too much to the conference's Final Four chances.

If we agree -- as everyone pretty much does -- that the Big East is the best conference this season, then it's not unreasonable at all to think they could get at least two teams in. Like you said, it's a wide-open field, so there are not a multitude of superpowers from other conferences waiting to take down the Big East's entries.

Kind of to that point -- we're not really even sure if these teams from other conferences can compete with the Big East teams. The Big East dominated the non-conference portion of the year and then beat up -- and improved -- each other in conference play. Duke and Kansas are great, but neither team has gone through the rigors of the Big East schedule.

Furthermore, getting two teams in the Final Four is not even a major stretch for a conference; the Big East just accomplished the feat two years ago when UConn and Villanova each made the final weekend of play. 

Donato: Under

I agree it is not out of the question for the Big East to get two teams into the Final Four. I just think the odds are against such a feat. If the Big East is to pull it off, I believe their best bets come out of the Southeast (Jimmer territory) and the East.

Pitt (RPI 10) is a 1-seed, so they have an edge, but they potentially have to get past either Utah. St. (Seriously, a team ranked 15 in RPI is a 12-seed? Wisconsin is a 4-seed in that region and they are 16th in RPI.) or BYU RPI-5, and then Florida RPI 8.

The East is a different animal. It has four Big East teams therein and is home to my "Ballsy Upset Special". (Ohio State does not make it out of the second round. You heard it here first!) Of course, that is still not probable. Villanova has to beat a sneaky-tough George Mason team just to face the Buckeyes. Syracuse is well-rested after their one-game Big East tourney and I could see them making a run, but their shoddy free throws make me weary of close games.

Louisville and UConn just beat the heck out of themselves on their Big East Tourney run, may not have much left in the tank, and I think my Huskies have used each of their three wishes, including an Aladdin-style trick bonus wish to win every game following the DePaul one. Cincinnati will be a tough game for them and the challenge will only increase with SDSU and Duke likely to follow.

Louisville and Notre Dame are locked in a room with RPI No. 1 Kansas in the Southwest, making escape unlikely. Even though Notre Dame was in contention for a 1 seed, I don't like their matchup with Purdue.

Now, the Big East does seem like Mr. Burn's starting lineup from "Homer at the Bat", but they will be far less formidable unless, of course, my eleven Big East teams fall victim to eleven separate good fortunes and are able to play in the Sweet 16. But that will never happen.

Three good fortunes, that's possible. Seven good fortunes, there's an outside chance. But eleven good fortunes? I'd like to see that!

Actually, I would like to see that, improbable as it may be.

Kelly: Over

I wish you weren't such a huge UConn fan so I could just call you a Big East-hater and dismiss you. Oh well.

Anyway, how about we let the always rational, sane and truth-driven people of the comments section take this one away from here and declare a victor?

Will the Big East get two in or will the other conferences' put their foot down on this "best-ever conference" talk? Keep it classy, profanity-free, and remember to side with the over.

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Sunday, February 13, 2011

Reeling Syracuse Needs Monday Night Win

It was on Jan. 15 that the Syracuse men’s basketball team pushed its record to a perfect 18-0 after a 15-point dismantling of Cincinnati. Ranked fourth in the country and playing as well as anyone in the country, Jim Boeheim’s Orange-clad group had become a chic pick to make a Final Four push come March.

But in the four weeks after the Orange’s big win over the Bearcats, Syracuse has fallen on such hard times that it seems reasonable to suggest that the Orange are no longer even a tournament lock. Since the home win over Cincinnati — Syracuse’s most recent home win, by the way — Boeheim’s bunch have gone 2-6 and fallen into ninth place in the Big East.

It was just a handful of years ago that a different orange-clad team started a season 17-0 and failed to make the NCAA tournament; that time, it was the Clemson Tigers of the ACC who saw their great start end in a final record of 21-10 and an invitation to the NIT.

Remember: The NCAA tournament selection committee takes a long, hard look at how teams fared in the final stretch of the regular season. A great start can easily be undone by a wretched finish in the committee’s eyes.

However, it still is only mid-February which means that Syracuse has more than enough time to turn this around. So, let’s break this down a little bit, starting with the positives …
  • As it stands now, people like ESPN’s Joe Lunardi were giving Syracuse a four-seed as recently as Friday and the team is a solid No. 20 in the RPI. The Orange has 10 quality wins, three of which came against top-30 teams in the RPI.
  • Syracuse has five more regular season games, two of which are against teams — Georgetown and Villanova — that could give the Orange a nice high-profile win. Two of the remaining three games — home meetings with DePaul and Rutgers — are very winnable games for Syracuse.
  • Playing in the Big East has its benefits, as after the regular season the Orange will get to wipe the slate clean and take a crack at registering multiple quality wins in the conference’s postseason tournament.  
But now for the negatives …
  • Those two remaining chances for high-profile regular season wins will both come on the road against clubs who A) are playing much better than Syracuse right now and B) both beat the Orange in the Carrier Dome.
  • The highest number of teams to ever make the tournament from one conference? Eight. The Big East seems a lock to get at least nine, maybe 10, spots this season in the Big Dance thanks to the tournament’s expansion to 68 teams, but Syracuse currently sits in ninth in conference play. That certainly puts them on the bubble.
  • Playing in the Big East also has its negatives. It’s not far-fetched to see a sliding Syracuse find itself out of the conference tournament before the quarterfinal round even starts. As it stands now with Syracuse in ninth place — albeit, just out of eighth place by percentage points — the Orange would need to win two games to make it to the final eight of the Big East’s postseason.
So all of this brings me to the one game I have not mentioned yet — Syracuse’s home affair on Monday night against West Virginia. From my figuring, Monday night’s game is the must-win for the Orange, since it is the team’s best remaining chance to add a top-30 win to its resume. In my opinion, if they defeat West Virginia on Monday night the Orange are in the tournament and will be no worse than a fifth seed; however, a loss to the Mountaineers will put Syracuse in extreme (postseason) peril.

Here’s why: Let’s say Syracuse loses on Monday night, takes care of business against Rutgers, drops both road games against Georgetown and Villanova, and easily dispatches of DePaul; the Orange then fall out of the Big East Tournament in the second round at the hands of someone like St. Johns or UConn.

Such a (likely) hypothetical finish to the Orange’s season would leave Syracuse with a 23-10 record on the season, but only one meaningful win (UConn on Feb. 2) in the season’s final two months. Furthermore, Syracuse would enter Selection Sunday as the losers of 10 of its final 15 games.   

My hunch is that Syracuse takes care of business on Monday night and knocks off West Virginia at the Carrier Dome. Though sliding, it’s tough to envision the Orange losing a fourth straight home game. But, if the clock hits all zeros on Monday night and the scoreboard is showing a victory for the visitors, any Orange-fan panic will not be undeserved.
--Michael Kelly

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