Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Bracket Busters will help one of Albany and Siena

The matchups for the ESPN Bracket Buster — from now on, "BB" — schedule has been announced and, interestingly enough, the potential NCAA Tournament fates of both UAlbany and Siena are heavily intermingled.

Of the two men's basketball teams, only Siena is in this year's BB field — the Saints will play at home against Maine — and neither Albany nor Siena has a chance for an at-large bid to the Big Dance like the Saints did the past two years. Both teams will have to win their respective conference tournaments to make the this year's NCAA Tournament field, but the results of these BB games could go a long way toward deciding how an America East (Albany) or MAAC (Siena) school will fare in the tournament's seeding, in general. Between the two conferences, five America East schools and nine MAAC teams are in the BB field.

But here is where it gets interesting — of the five America East schools represented, four will play against teams from the MAAC.

Now, the importance of BB games is that it gives mid-majors a chance to get a nice out-of-conference win, which is good for both the winning team and said team's conference; for example, if an ACC school beats a Big East school — unlikely, right? — that would help out all ACC schools within the world of RPI, the mathematical formula used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee to help make decisions on the seeding of teams.

With that said, those four games between America East and MAAC schools become very important for each respective conference; if one conference can win three or all four of those games, it could help substantially with that conference's tournament selection.

For example, right now the projected America East representative (Maine) is listed as a 16-seed in the latest "Bracketology" by ESPN's Joe Lunardi; meanwhile, the current MAAC representative (Fairfield) is listed as a 14-seed. These low rankings are largely due to the RPI associated with each team's conference; out of 31 conferences (and Independents), the America East is rated the 25th best conference and the MAAC is viewed as the 16th best conference.

If either conference is able to win a majority of the four games they play during BB, that conference's RPI will surely pick up and so might the eventual seed of that conference's tournament winner. Right now, Albany and Siena are both in the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, so NCAA Tournament dreams for either squad are not out of the question.

Here are the four matchups between the two conferences, with each team's current RPI* in parentheses and the America East schools in bold ...

New Hampshire (252) at Marist (306)
Manhattan (303) at Stony Brook (277)
Canisius (205) at Boston University (204)
Maine (139) at Siena (178)

Looking at those matchups from a conference perspective, the MAAC has a lot to gain from these games, despite being the higher-rated conference. The MAAC schools in these four games all have lower RPIs, meaning that the MAAC, as a whole, has more to gain with each win.

*There are 345 ranked teams in the RPI; the list can be found here.

For a different point of view, check out this article which basically argues that these BB games are completely meaningless. I disagree with him, but he does make a good point about needing more schools from "large" conferences in these games.

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